Yesterday, ECB Governing council said that mobility data has shown a decrease in Q4 2020. I checked the mobility data offered by Apple. From October to December 2020, both Germany and the United Kingdom saw a significant decrease in their mobility data. Europeans are moving a bit more than in March and April 2020. However, the numbers are a bit worrying.
Remember that both the United Kingdom and Germany suffered massive lockdowns from November 2020. In January 2021, both countries see now how covid cases decrease a bit:
Mobility data of the UK and Germany shows that cars are not moving a lot. I would not expect the mobility data to decline a lot in the coming months. In my opinion, the worse situation is over:
The ECB noted in December 2020 that the GDP would decline in Q4 2020. However, it also noted that in Q1 2021, the GDP will rebound again:
According to the ECB, we will be able to go back to the 2019 pre-crisis level by mid-2022. The crude oil price would go back to 46.9 by 2023:
In the United States, the situation is a bit different. Mobility data of cars is not worrying at all. At the moment, I think we do not need to worry a lot about the United States. If Joe Biden does not enforce large restrictions, the economy in the United States will get better in 2021.
It is a pity that we don’t have mobility data for China. China and the United States are the largest importers of crude oil in the world. If their mobility data declines, they will see a decrease in their demand for crude oil. As a result, most analysts would expect the crude oil price to decline.
With that, notice that in 2021, crude oil supply decreased a lot. I would not expect the crude oil price to drop like it did in March 2020:
Discussion about this post